The Road So Far
Chelsea booked their place in the final with a confident 2–0 win over Fluminense, thanks to brace from João Pedro, who joined from Brighton on July 2—his first goals in only his second appearance for the Blues.
Despite Caicedo suffering an ankle injury late in that match, the core spine of the team remains intact.
They’ve navigated a surprisingly smooth bracket: having avoided heavyweights like City and Inter Milan, Chelsea dispatched Benfica, Palmeiras, and then Fluminense — culminating in semifinal odds of 74.8% and a 26.8% chance of being crowned champions from Opta.
Opponent Preview: PSG vs Real Madrid
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PSG: Reigning Champions League winners, unbeaten in this tournament, with a potent attack (Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Barcola, Kvaratskhelia). Their defensive discipline was tested in the Bayern game where two red cards came but another clinical win cemented their status.
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Real Madrid: Unblemished in Club World Cup history (17W, 3D), battle-tested under Xabi Alonso, edged past Juventus and Dortmund. However, heat has been a factor—their draw with Al-Hilal came amid punishing 92°F (~33 °C) humidity that affected performance.
Key detail: PSG will be without Pacho and Hernández for the final if they progress, due to red card suspensions. Real Madrid would only miss Dean Huijsen, making PSG’s defense slightly more vulnerable.
Chelsea’s Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths
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Attacking depth: João Pedro, Pedro Neto, and Cole Palmer have found form and chemistry both in knockout and semis
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Confidence & momentum: Coming off the Conference League title and finishing 4th in the Premier League, their mentality is strong .
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One-tournament pedigree: Chelsea have lifted the Club World Cup once before—in 2021 with a 2–1 extra-time win over Palmeiras.
Weaknesses
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Injuries: Caicedo’s ankle issue could impact midfield control; Essugo is already out.
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Goalkeeping uncertainty: Sánchez and Jørgensen have faced scrutiny, and Jorgensen may even depart soon.
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Experience vs. elite: Chelsea’s squad lacks the collective history in elite finals that PSG and Real bring.
Weather & Conditions
The U.S. summer heat (around 32–34 °C with humidity) is a recurring theme. Chelsea’s match against Benfica faced long weather delays due to storms, causing frustration for coach Maresca. Conditions could similarly affect fitness and match flow in the final.
Tactical Matchups
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Midfield control: With Caicedo out, winning possession will fall to players like Fernández and Santos. Expect a midfield battle against PSG’s structure or Real’s resilience.
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Defensive resilience: Chelsea must handle power forwards like Dembélé/Kvaratskhelia or Mbappé/Vini Jr., depending who reaches the final.
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Set pieces & transitions: Chelsea’s young attack thrives in quick counter moments—exploiting gaps from overcommitted opponents could be decisive.
History & Intangibles
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European dominance: European clubs have won 12 straight Club World Cups; Chelsea won in 2021
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Tournament format: This inaugural 32-team World Cup adds fatigue and unpredictability—but also gives underdog chances.
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Chelsea’s renaissance: Under Maresca, this tournament represents a statement of intent—a global breakthrough for the young, evolving squad.
Can Chelsea Win?
Yes—but it’ll take everything aligning.
They need full fitness, tactical discipline, and energy-preserved performances. A final against PSG sans key defenders offers a small edge. A clash with Real Madrid demands near-perfect composure and creativity. Regardless, Chelsea enter as underdogs with a real shot, fueled by momentum, summer form, and a chance to cement their evolving identity on a world stage.
🔹 What to Watch On July 13
| Factor | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Midfield battle | Can Chelsea mitigate the absence of Caicedo and control tempo? |
| Fitness & substitutions | Who copes best in heat/humidity—rotations will matter. |
| Defensive solidity | Handling elite attackers or exploiting weaker PSG backlines. |
| Goalkeeper form | Sánchez/Jørgensen must step up—could be decisive. |
| Tactical adaptability | Enzo’s ability to shift in-game against either opponent. |
Verdict
Chelsea’s path to glory is tough, but not impossible. With belief, form, and a dose of summer resilience, they could lift the Club World Cup again. Still, beating Europe’s elite—boasting unmatched pedigree—will demand a special performance.
So can Chelsea FC win it on July 13th, 2025? Possibly. Worth watching? Absolutely.